Top Day Recs

Trade Date 05.08

The market continues to point towards Wednesday's FOMC policy statement even though the universe seems agreed that rates will remain unchanged. Stocks lower on earnings concerns. 10 year auction today. Peruvian coper strike ends, Crude higher on Nigerian attacks against oil infrastructure. 

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May 07	15:00	Consumer Credit	Mar		$4.0B	$4.5B	$3.0B
May 08	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Mar		0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
May 09	10:30	Crude Inventories	05/04		NA	NA	1169K
May 09	14:15	FOMC policy statement
May 10	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Apr		NA	NA	0.6%
May 10	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Apr		NA	NA	0.3%
May 10	08:30	Initial Claims	05/05		325K	320K	305K
May 10	08:30	Trade Balance	Mar		-$59.5B	-$60.0B	-$58.4B
May 10	14:00	Treasury Budget	Apr		$160.0B	$135.0B	$118.8B
May 11	08:30	Retail Sales	Apr		0.6%	0.4%	0.7%
May 11	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Apr		0.6%	0.4%	0.8%
May 11	08:30	PPI	Apr		0.7%	0.6%	1.0%
May 11	08:30	Core PPI	Apr		0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
May 11	10:00	Business Inventories	Mar		0.2%	0.2%	0.3%

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Credit and option Trades

The methodology is to first see if the underlying future is under accumulation or distribution; in other words, discern a trend if possible. The second step is to figure out support and resistance for the futures contract. The third step is with an uptrending market, sell put spreads at support levels and with declining markets sell call spreads at resistance levels.  

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Current Positions

June Yen:  Money flow remains negative but we are above daily res of 8395 so stay away.   

June BP:  money flow remains positive. support is 198. 94.

June Bonds: trend flips on a close above 112.01 

Ten Year: trend flips on a close baove 10809.     

June EC:  money flow now negative. needs to close below 136.20 today.                   

June Canadian: money flow positive. at 9057, sell the 90/88 put spread.          

Emini S+P: we are short the May 1445/1460 call spread for a credit of 7.75.

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Day Trades and Swing Trades

June Emini: Money flow still positive. Support is 1510.00      

June $5 Dow:   

June E-Nasdaq: short from1818.00. 

Be a King: Trade the TUT: (2 years over 10 years)   

June Yen: see above   

June Canada: s.a.. Buy 9057

June Euro Currency:  s.a.

June Gold: Sell 680.40. Filled. Sell 1 at 691.20. Filled. Bought back 689.80 for +140. Sell 695.10   

May Silver: below daily support of 13.55 

June British Pound:  interest rate differentials suggest pos money flow. Buy 198.94 

June Mini Crude: money flow is negative. sell 62.27 

June Mini Natural Gas: sell 793.   

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International Markets:

Euro Bund:  

Dax: 

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NB. Recs are updated throughout the day at www.tradewithvision.com. For those without accts use 999999 and  9934 as a pin for access.      

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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Trading isn't about winning or losing, it's about self discovery.

Life is like trading; both leave scars.

Never meet a margin call. Liquidate. The margin clerk is your best friend.   

The market will all too soon locate, expose and exploit your weaknesses.

When you put a trade on,  it should work almost immediately. If it doesn't, seriously consider bagging the idea and look for a new setup.

If the market prints your price and doesn't fill you, go to the market.  

You can go broke taking profits, very small profits.

If you are down a certain, predetermined percentage of your equity (for some this could be as little as 5% and for others this could be as much as 17%) and you have open positions, liquidate and go to cash. You and the market aren't on the same schedule. (No one ever does this).  

Volatility means that if you're bullish you can't withstand a bearish day and if you are bearish you can't withstand a bullish day.

You can go broke taking profits.

Use night markets to take risk off the table. Use day sessions to add risk. IOW, use the night to get short risk, use the day to get long risk.  

Don't think of the market as an opponent to be bulled, bloodied, battered and beaten. Its resources are far greater than yours. It's better to concede the conceit of market as ocean in all its obvious metaphoric diversity. 

The Myth of Sisyphus resonates in the experience of trading.     

Remember that irony is alive, well and constantly at work in the universe; irony, the cornerstone to the construct of the divine comedy.

Trading isn't about winning or losing, it's about building equity. Taking strategic losses is key to building equity.

A market is a market. It can do anything it wants. It doesn't have to make sense. A market is only obliged to itself.

Just as persistence allows mediocrity to soar, a persistent, rule driven trading approach seasoned with just the right touch of intuition can turn your sow's ear into a silk purse. 

What you want to have happen in a market often prevents you from doing what you should be doing in a market.     

That which is true, never changes. A market, a dynamic revaluating mechanism, always changes. There's very little that's true about a market.

Beware of the new paradigm, it may not be wearing any clothes.

If you don't crave profit, profit may be attracted to you. If you don't fear loss, loss may not be attracted to you.

If you want to be condemned, keep doing what you've always done.

Worst positions leave last.

The market is an imperfect game. Chess is a perfect game. All information is transparent. Either you are a smart player and can see the board or you are a challenged player. There is no luck. Poker is an imperfect game. You don't know all variables and bluff by itself can win the day.

You only learn from losing trades. A winning trade is simply a confirmation of your current infallibility.

Do everything you can to keep a losing trade an annoyance rather than a memorable event.

If you are in a winning position, remain aware that just as the sea reclaims land, the market wants its money back. 

Never disrespect the possible (especially option expirations). 

A trade is a trade. It is a financial event. It is not a justification or repudiation of your geopolitical or ecopolitical model.   

Don't convince yourself that you've figured out the puzzle. The puzzle keeps changing. Eventually the puzzle just disappears.

As soon as you can't recognize the art of your current trade, get out.

You have to be willing to give back, to fold, to square your position to cash. If you don't give back they will end up taking you away. 

Markets spend as much time going up as they do going down, the only difference is amplitude.

As the futures market is a zero sum game and the instruments of trade expire continually, regression to the mean should be a frequent event. The stock market is totally different; for every buyer there doesn't have to be a seller and the life of a stock is theoretically, potentially,  infinite. Regression to the mean should be a "less frequent" event at Wall and Broad.

Good trades are often counter intuitive.

There's far greater skill in trading well when you're behind than in trading well when you're ahead. 

Ascertaining the correct value for 6 variables before making a trading decision is not better than ascertaining the correct value for 3 variables. When it comes to heuristics, kiss.

All your answers have questions.

Markets are mechanisms that foster irrational behavior.

Don't let your trading be held hostage to the need for discernment.

As soon as market action can be explained and generally understood, expect the market to change.  

Before entering a trade,  mentally understand and accept all potential loses.

If you have to win you'll lose.

If you have to lose, you will.

On initial order placement, never be impetuous. Wait for your price.

Look for ways to take action. Idle brilliance addles.

Good trades usually set up with a sense of inevitability and unfold in slow motion.

Remembrance may be the inability to let go.

In trading, feeling comfortable should be an uncomfortable feeling.

You can't continue to court disaster without eventually landing a date.

You're only as young as your last winning trade.

People feel more comfortable with losing positions and more nervous with winning positions.

If you have a position in a market and the average true range of that market is 128 points and the market has only had a range of 28 points so far, start figuring out which side of the market is going to deliver the next 100 points.    

When asked to play a game, then stopped mid game and asked how they are doing, people invariably state that they are performing at better levels than they actually are. 

Work on four things: fear, anger, frustration and judgement; it's all derived from fear.

Anger is the clash of desires.

Whatever you believe is undoubtedly correct until the passage of time offers another suggestion. 

Simplify. If you are using 4 indicators to trade, use three. If you are trading 5 markets, trade 4, then reexamine the number of indicators you're using.

Markets generally lack conviction, especially post 9/11. That's why trend traders have a low incidence of winning. Take advantage of that.

What funds buy, they sell. No fund is ever going to take delivery of a barrel of oil or a bag of coffee. Take advantage of that.

You manifest the world through interpretation.

Life is, at least, the non-annihilating coexistence of opposites.

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Chuck Kespert

     running imaginary tote commencing 8.30.05 on closed out positions for entertainment value

 market value, non inclusive of comission and fees  

+718.25  Bonds

+718.75 TY notes

+296.87 Bond spreads

+156.25 Bond options

+287.50 British futures

+2675.0 British options

+1722.50 Canadian options

+1340 Canada futures

+1694.50 Yen futures

+813.00 Yen spreads

+1112  EC futres

+2712.90 Euro Currency spread

+1087.5 EC options

Nasdaq (190)

Emini S+P  0

Emini S+P options (55) 

Mini Crude + 4290

Min Nat Gas +1605.00

Gold +2752

Gold options (160)

Bunds +40 points(priced in EC ticks)

Mini Dow Options +600

Mini Dow futures 80

Silver +3750

TUT +125

chuck kespert

 Futures trading entails considerable risk. The use of stops does not limit risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.          
 

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